India's outreach to Russia driven by China threat, says analyst

Venture capitalist and entrepreneur from the Silicon Valley Karl Mehta, in a post on X, argued that "the global narrative surrounding Putin's visit to India is missing the forest for the trees," noting that Western analysts have been "quick to label the Modi-Putin camaraderie as India flexing' strategic autonomy' or prioritizing discounted energy and arms." He countered that "this reading is fundamentally flawed."

Mehta said India's approach "is a calculated necessity driven by a single, existential threat: China." He maintained that "Beijing is actively encroaching on India's borders." In this regional dynamic, "Russia remains the only power capable of exerting influence over China due to their 'no limits' partnership." If India were to distance itself from Moscow, he warned, "it pushes Moscow entirely into Beijing's orbit, leaving India encircled."

He also pointed to limits in US security guarantees. While calling the United States "a key strategic partner," Mehta said, "history has taught New Delhi that Washington does not intervene in Himalayan land disputes." He cited recent crises, asserting that "during the Galwan clashes or continued border aggression—Western support has been largely rhetorical." As a result, he argued, "the US security umbrella does not extend to the Line of Actual Control (LAC)."

"Maintaining close ties with Moscow is the only wedge India has to prevent a total Russia-China axis," he said, emphasising that "India is not choosing Russia over the US. It is choosing to keep a channel open with the only nation that can help moderate Chinese aggression when the West cannot—or will not."

In recent years, India has balanced deepening cooperation with the United States in the Indo-Pacific with long-standing defence and strategic ties with Russia. Moscow remains a major arms supplier to India, even as New Delhi expands joint production and technology partnerships with Washington.